Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.
It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.
This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.
The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.
This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".
Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.
DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.
Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.
That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.
In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.
Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.
Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.
Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.
But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.
Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.
The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.
However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.
Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.
The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.
A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.
Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.
This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.
"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."
There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?
Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.
Elara Vance is a dedicated MapleStory enthusiast and gaming writer, known for creating in-depth guides and staying updated on game mechanics.
